Football — definitely the number one sport in the world. In the world of bets certainly (well, perhaps with the exception of North America, but they are not like other people.) Just look at the painting , given by the offices on different sports and football here would be out of the competition . Bookmakers are tripping over themselves to give to the most popular games as much as possible betting options on anything — until " whether coach removed from the bench ," or " whether the match was interrupted due to unrest in the stands ." And these efforts offices — not their personal whim : demand creates supply , including here. And, perhaps, in any other sport of inhabitants there are not as many «experts» ready to give advice to athletes and coaches , almost believing that better themselves, no one, including most of these athletes and coaches , not versed in this game . Not surprisingly, many of these people, even not being big fans of gambling (although if you can find a lot of sports fans neazartnyh ?) , But when he heard about the bet , surely decide to take part in them , thinking to himself : " Well, I do something I thoroughly I know all this football kitchen, why not cut down on this money ? " Familiar, does not it? Especially if you — a fan of some club , visit his matches at the stadium , or at least , do not miss any TV coverage (if a team -grand ) , you know all about the players and the coaching staff , administrative , until what to eat for breakfast today leading hitter , or who slept the day before the goalkeeper (who — obviously refers to the girl , and not someone from the team-mates , though .... however, the orientation of the goalkeeper , you must also be aware - it's your favorite team ! ), whose birthday is celebrated as a team after the next match in the steepest nightclub city night long ... etc. etc. In short, the life of your favorite club for you there are no mysteries and secrets , and you decide that it will help you to enrich themselves at the bookmaker . And it is — one of the major errors. Most important , perhaps — to put it , generally having a vague idea of ​​what you put , but it is any sane person should be clear about it . But the fact that even great deal in football as a game and have all possible information about a club in terms of its fan is not enough to be successful in betting on the sport ( and the command ) — obviously few, if someone thinks about it , especially at first. Nevertheless , it is! Most exhaustive knowledge of game theory , sufficient , for example, to write their own research on the topic "Playing defense and libero line : a comparative analysis " , while playing on the rates are unlikely to do any good . If only it were that simple, then the most prosperous players would be people with enough experience of football — coaches , teachers specialties football sports high schools , famous football reporters (although most of these qualifications is much lower than it seems , though , and among them there real experts , especially if they are former players or coaches ) . But we see that this is not happening . Even if you do not notice — Open any newspaper sports section and find the " experts' predictions ." At least , the Russian Premier League this topic comes in many of our publications. As a rule, each tour forecasts there gives a new man , and more solid than the edition , the more «stars» are involved in football . Try to keep statistics of these forecasts , not just guessed how much , and how much is not ( as a rule, there are forecasts at the expense of matches , but we are interested in outcomes — who will win or a draw play ), namely in terms of rates — that is, take the coefficients in your favorite bookmaker , apply them to predict that giving on each bet by one standard unit ( possible 100 , for ease of calculation and exceptions to the fractional parts of it ) , and strike a balance . When a sufficient amount of such rates is drawn more or less true picture that is guaranteed to surprise you ! And surprise unpleasant. The same applies to the fans of different teams , especially eminent clubs or teams. Those fans some minor league club , living in the same place your favorite club is based , can still be an advantage in terms of awareness compared with other players (why — we learn later ) . True, there is still added such a negative factor for rates as patriotism , or emotion fan. Excessive deification of their idols , or vice versa, hatred for them in moments of failure , prevents objectively assess the chances of your favorite club . Few can « disconnect » from the fan thoughts and look impartially . Especially if your in a match idols needed only a victory : convince ourselves that "we certainly will tear them ! " good for the fans , certainly for a player ( mental attitude in sport plays an important role ), but totally unacceptable for a player on rates. If all the teams who need a victory , certainly it was mined , even in matches with unmotivated rivals football as such would not be , especially in the final rounds of the championships. Even in the Italian championship , where at the end of the season are usually those who have nothing, humbly give glasses to those who should be the exception, not so rare. Thus, summarizing the above, even if you thoroughly versed in the game of football , bit by bit gather information about your favorite club regularly see live matches — success rates you are far from guaranteed. Moreover, you have slightly more likely than the average visitor bookmaker with its average knowledge . And we need to understand before you rush to the booth with a line ready. Why is this happening ? First, the bookmakers — are professionals . They also gather all available information , follow the latest news, and take into account all these factors when setting the coefficients. Take as a postulate : " What I know people on the other side of the window is already laid to the line " and you realize that , no matter how eminent expert you are, all your knowledge do not have any advantages over the odds in the line. Moreover, because of the margin you initially not even in the same position with the bookie ! In fact, not all information is taken into account in the line of the bookmaker , and then we'll see , but for now it will be useful to consider the case. Underestimating their strength , knowledge and skills will be more appropriate here than overestimation . Secondly — a large part of what you «know » or what is « confident » , actually introduced into your brain so powerful factor in how public opinion . People are gregarious and admiration for the majority opinion. Very few are able to oppose this opinion and no doubt the last . Social stereotypes , often have very little to do with reality, zapolonyayut our lives are for her leadership , and it acts as a rate nowhere clearly. Popular argument "Real will win because it is Real ! " - The most vivid illustration of the fact . At the same time that even Real Madrid from time to time loses all know , but this fact does not diminish their confidence in this particular case . In other articles on this site shows that public opinion players for bookmaker when placing them coefficients even more important than the reality. Therefore, it is already incorporated into the line. So that we get the long game , if you choose your bids will focus on public knowledge and opinions ? In the most common case « would get » on the margin. At worst — get even more significant loss , as another property — an elementary human greed — compels us to collect «our» (actually — mostly public) to express opinions , and then once again upset that did not play just one Event ... Often — something which was most sure.