One of the most common mistakes made when betting on sports is that special knowledge in the field of sports confused with a specialization in the field of sports betting. This error is well illustrated by the fact that many former professional sports stars have become the self-proclaimed experts or prompter , and it is well described by a «mistake » green " wood ."  

One of the most successful togrovtsev «green» wood (which represents the green woods ) of all time really had no clue about what he sells . He spent his entire career in timber merchant , believing that this stuff is just wood painted with green paint , and not freshly cut wood .
The term « bug » green « wood » was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his recent book «Antifragile» (« Antihrupkost "), in which he also described the second such incident : extremely lucky trader Swiss francs , whose inability to find Switzerland on the map has not prevented him to make a currency trade of this country.  

What about the people who do not know what they sell , have achieved success ? And how does this relate to the rates ?  

These two — and many others — just understand the risk , something that other people — even those who have extensive knowledge of the freshly cut timber or on a certain Central European country — can not.  

Of course, the ideal situation would be the knowledge of both the market and risk. However , it is vitally important to remember that risk awareness is equally important , and perhaps even more important than The knowledge of the sport.
This differs from the presentation, which can be obtained by reading the last page of any national newspaper , which with high probability we can find the column tips waged a former athlete . It is clear that players can add weight to the former football player on football betting , but remember : football and betting on football — are two totally different sphere.
Recognition and enforcement of risk  

Although the term « bug » green « wood » was coined Taleb , relevant theory we find elsewhere. For example, had a great influence Michael Lewis' book «Moneyball» focuses on the idea that acquired more than a century the collective wisdom of the inner circle of Major League Baseball was founded on the wrong subjective analysis and instead more effective would be more analytical cue approach focusing on a few fundamental key parameters .  

The approach described in the book «Moneyball», was mastered several managers of the English Premier League. This was challenged vysokosubektivnomu approach the old school, which is very difficult to describe quantitatively and which often prevents acquittal thinking.  

To make successful bids , reading this , it is important to know the following players :  

     The fact that someone has extensive knowledge and experience in any sport, does not mean that it has the necessary knowledge for successful betting on the sport .
     " Talking Heads " / journalists / prompter like narrative , a narrative that skillfully explains, for example , as the team lost its shape . More stories they like to remake if something had gone very wrong , as expected ( as often happens in life).
     I'll ask yourself — if you know something about the game of golf, whether you immediately start confidently bet on golf?  

Of course, no one argues that the knowledge of the sport is not important or does not matter from the perspective of sports betting . However , the average properties of the media often refer to the " talking heads " as the experts predicted , although their actual specialization ( here it is appropriate to recall the « green» wood) usually indicates that they rarely can be considered appropriate to assess the risk or make predictions that you follow betting their hard earned money