Expected return rate shows us how we can win (on average) at one rate , and thus represents the most important calculation , which can carry the player , for example, when comparing the bookmakers . How can calculate the expected rate of return — and how it affects sports betting ?  

" Expected return " — or EV — is the expected size of the gain or loss , if a lot of time to bet at the same ratio . For example, if you put 10 euros on the loss of an eagle in the game throwing coins and get 11 euros each time you correctly predskazhesh result , EV will be 0.5 .
This means that if one made ​​the same bet a lot of times, you could expect to win on average 0.50 euros for each bet of 10 euros.
How to calculate the expected return  

The formula for calculating the expected return for quite simple — just multiply your probability of winning for the amount that you can win on a bet , and subtract the result from the probability of loss multiplied by the amount of loss on interest rate :  

( probability of winning ) x ( win amount per bet ) — ( probability of loss ) x ( amount of loss on a single bet )  

To calculate the expected return of sports betting , you're with a few calculations you can put in the above formula decimal numbers :  

    1. Find decimal odds for each outcome ( win, lose , draw)
    2 . Calculate the possible winnings for each outcome , multiplying the size of their bets on the decimal ratio, and then subtracting the result from the size of the bet
    3 . Divide 1 by a factor of outcome to calculate the probability of the outcome
    4 . Put data obtained in the above formula .  

For example, when Manchester United ( 1,263 ) playing with Wigan ( 13.500 ) and koefftsient draw is 6.500, a € 10 bet on Wigan win could potentially give the size of the winning 125 euros , while the probability of this outcome is 0.074 or 7.4 %.
The likelihood that such an outcome would not be equal to the sum verotyanostey victory Manchester United and draws , ie 0,792 + 0,154 = 0,946 . Sum proigysha one bet equal to the initial rate — 10 euros. Thus, a complete equation will vyglayadet so .
(0.074 x € 125 ) — (0.946 x € 10 ) = — € 0.20
EV for this bid is negative , indicating that you will lose an average of 0.20 euros for each bet of 10 euros.
As the expected return on sports betting is helping us ?  

Remember that a negative EV value does not mean that you will necessarily lose money. Unlike the game throwing coins, sports betting factors are subjective and if you manage to outsmart the bookmaker , you probably will be able to earn .  

If you calculate your own probability of the outcome of the match , which differs from the probability arising from the coefficients , you can see where to find the positive EV and thus a better chance of winning.  

For example, the coefficient suggests that Wigan chances of winning are only 7.4 %. If your payment (you can use this system as a Poisson distribution ) shows that the probability of winning Wigan is 10 %, EV bet on Wigan abruptly increase to 3,262 euros.  

EV payment rates gives players more information about the profitability of their bookmakers . While bookmakers have low-margin EV is approximately — € 0.20, meaning the typical EV bookmakers often is — € 1.00 — on each bet size of 10 euros you will probably lose 1 euro .