6:51 PM coefficients |
One of the few factors that contrary not attach due importance — it is the size of the coefficients. Generally , players can be divided into three camps . The first — the ones who choose the most likely from their perspective outcomes, despite the coefficients . Second — it is those who focused primarily on the ratio , and if it is sufficiently profitable , then the rate will be made , even if they do not really believe in success. Finally, the third camp — those whose rates defies logic , but about them we will not say . Which of the first two approaches is better — rather metaphysical argument : if you constantly put on the coefficients expressing the advantage over the line , the profits of the long game is guaranteed to us mathematically (unless of course it's the advantage over the line defined true) fans as the first approach to his abut intuition and knowledge that will help them choose from a winning bet line . However, the main drawback of the latter is precisely the fact that they often do not pay attention to the factors , not even in the sense of matching the alleged probability of the event , but in terms of optimizing their offices at , ie Search the highest coefficient on selected outcome of all available offices. That is, deprive themselves of profit — maybe more , and perhaps all, as a fact ! One of the latter-day Capper I even read the description : " If I see a good bet , I give it right away and not try to discover as much as hell 0 tenths profit." Immediately evident that man plays on a dime , if ever played . Because even an extra one-tenth in the ratio gives an increase in scoring 10% — rates by 5 rubles difference , perhaps insignificant, but the contribution of hundreds of dollars — enough palpable . And at long game , where the fight is for every tenth of a factor not — percent of turnover , this difference can translate common minus into a plus if the « pick point horseradish tenth 0 » , respectively, and vice versa — to turn into a real profit potential loss if this not attend . Conclusion here is this: no matter what principles you play, but if you're looking for the maximum coefficient of your bet — you steal at a profit. For those for whom factors play an important role , just find the maximum coefficient of its bid enough. Still need to probability corresponding to this ratio was below estimate the expected probability of the event . This principle Value Bet. But it is not all that easy. If you notice a strong disagreement with this probability factor , not in a hurry to rush to put, think: if all factors are taken into account when determining you assess ? Conversely, if not overestimated bookmaker some factors may have intentionally to attract players to overestimate the same factors that put on what he needs ? Particularly noticeable effect on the coefficients of such factors as motivation. Often in the final rounds of the championships on a team in last place against the leader are absolutely ridiculous rates just because the leader has already secured first place , as the underdog , fighting for survival, desperately need glasses . And here we should carefully weigh the «pros » and «cons » : it is the players relaxed leader to give up without a fight match opponent and sufficiently strong outsider to beat the leader , even if the players the entire match will be the last to walk ? As already mentioned, even unilateral motivation is no guarantee that whatsoever . If a logical explanation for this imbalance is not, it should alert even more. Bookmaker may know about some backstage moments , or maybe just to provoke players without good reason — this will be explained in the next chapter . |
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