Players often make bets based on feelings or listening to the inner voice . Unfortunately , your inner voice is much more irrational than you might think , and uses rough rule of thumb — in psychology are called heuristics ( heuristic algorithms ) — which may not be appropriate tools in order to make a successful bid .  

There is very good reason for that , we rely on heuristics — evolution . When our ancestors faced with complex , life-threatening problems , they did not have time to weigh the situation and so they have developed faster ways . Working solutions to problems were transferred to subsequent generations and we still rely on them, often even when it should not have done
The main types of heuristics  

binding effect  

Binding effect ( anchor effect ) affects people's ability to assess the most likely number of things of a certain species or the most probable value in the sequence.  

Example: A group of people are asked to guess the percentage of African countries in the UN . Before listening to their guest members witness a random process , the result of which is a number ( the anchor ) , and they ask the question — whether more or less than the anchor share of African countries. Then they can make their own assessment of the share of African countries in the UN . These estimates depend on the anchor , although participants know that it is random .  

Without having to realize that people are tied to their grades completely random point . It is believed that this is due to the fact that the anchor is perceived as a working hypothesis , the starting point from which a person does not want to run too far away .  

This phenomenon is widely exploited in marketing and is very important in terms of rates. Players should be wary of anchors in the wording rates and understand how the odds and their sizes imperceptibly affect their reasoning.  

effect availability  

Availability effect is expressed in people's tendency to betray more important events that leaves the greatest impression , or events that are easier to remember.  

An example of this is people reassessment of risk associated with dramatic and traumatic events — like terrorist attacks and earthquakes. Sales increased earthquake insurance immediately after the earthquake , although the risk is significantly reduced . Also, people are willing to pay higher premiums for insurance against death resulting from an act of terrorism than with insurance against death from any cause ( which, of course , includes terrorism).  

From the standpoint of rates be careful not to give too much importance to more recent or memorable results. Ask yourself , what do you think is easier — a draw 0-0 or match, which was scored a lot of goals .  

Certainly easier to recall the last two , but that does not mean that the outcome is more likely. In football, players tend to overestimate the frequency of events such as red cards and angular , as such events are important and easily remembered. This affects the perceived probability and behavior at making bets .  

Related to this is a common occurrence when players prefer to bet on more markets Thoth or bet with a handicap , as the effect of accessibility makes them wrong to conclude that the relevant event is more likely than it actually is .  

error diversification  

This heuristic describes how people tend to be more diversity in decision -making simultaneous than in sequential decision making .  

Example: If a person is asked to choose from a box of chocolates as five ( with an equal number of different chocolates ), his choice will be more diverse than in the case if he had to choose five times a chocolate bar .  

As for rates, players tend to invest more if the possibilities seem more diverse. A good example is betting on the draw and away win , as compared to a simple rate against the hosts such rates appear to be more diversified. However , to do more of these rates, no rationale , unless their expected return will not be higher .  

Escalation of commitment or sunk costs  

This heuristic describes how people feel obliged to justify their commitments to increasing cumulative investment despite the fact that increasing the potential costs outweigh the potential benefits .  

It is usually described as " throwing good money after bad ." As an example, consider a situation where people will sit in the movie until the end of the film, which he did not like it, just because he has already invested in watching a movie of their time and money , and so determined to justify this investment .  

As for rates, then this can be seen when the player continues to stubbornly stick to their rates , which can lead to high costs , instead of immediately losing a small amount. In such situations, people tend to be irrational determination to justify its original decision , rather than to " cut their costs."  

Representativeness heuristic or Error Player  

People tend to believe that short sequences of random events are longer sequences , ignoriruyuya fact that these events are statistically independent .  

Example: Error player also known as false conclusion Monte Carlo since 1913 on the table for a game of roulette in Monte Carlo casino black fell 26 times in a row. After the loss of the fifteenth black players had stopped his red chips , assuming that the chances of loss of another black numbers are astronomically small , illustrating this irrotsionalnuyu belief that one scroll roulette somehow affects the next .  

Player error is closely related with hands happy mistake that is the belief in stripes luck and bad luck. If anyone seems proshodyaschego with atypical sequence of events , he gives it a special meaning , such as « I am lucky » or " my luck ran out ."  

This phenomenon became known as Error happy hands after conducted in 1980 a study that showed that successful throw a basketball player does not increase the likelihood of success of its next cast only by previous success.  

This is especially important when betting games based on chance like roulette , lotteries and games of dice.  

People — not machines , we strive to be rational , but often we are hindered instincts . Players it can get expensive , so ignore your inner voice as possible , unless of course he does not tell you that it's time for dinner.